I’m going to make this simple, and present the numbers.
When I started self isolation on 13th of March 2020, there were 207 cases of COVID-19 diagnosed that day.
Two weeks later, on the 27th of March, 2,890 new cases were diagnosed in the UK that day. Those 2,890 people had caught the virus between the 13th and the 27th of March, many probably on the earlier side of that period of time.
The government decided to start lockdown on the 23rd of March. At the time, we all knew that it really was too late, that lockdown measures should have been put in place earlier than the 23rd. I will remind you that on the 23rd, there were 967 new cases diagnosed that day.
As I write, it’s the 29th of May, 2020, and there were 1,877 new cases of COVID-19 diagnosed in the UK yesterday, on the 28th of May.
If it was already too late on the 23rd of March to go into lockdown with 967 new cases that day, why in the world are we starting to open things up on 1 June, with 1,877 new cases on the 28th of May????
Let’s remember, too, that the real number of cases of COVID-19 is much, much higher in the UK, because the UK does not yet have widespread testing available. You have to be seriously ill enough to get tested, or work in the healthcare sector, or be in one of the other special categories that seem to be able to get tests (like being the Prime Minister or one of his advisers). If you’re a healthy person, below the age of 60, who isn’t showing any deeply worrying symptoms, you’re being told to stay home and quarantine, under the assumption you have COVID-19, without getting tested. But if you’re not tested, you’re not counted in those new case statistics I’ve been quoting.
So, add a few thousand (at least!) to the numbers above.
The app I posted about earlier is tracking people around the UK, and is being analysed by scientists at Kings College London. On the 29th of May, they believed that 186, 581 people in the country were currently ill and symptomatic:
And I’m sure I don’t need to remind you that this virus takes a long time to show symptoms, and that it’s abundantly clear that people are contagious long before they show symptoms.
Based off this, the scientists believe there are in fact currently 11,300 new cases per day in the UK.
The numbers the government shows you are wrong; but even if they were correct, the government numbers are too high for a safe reopening. The virus spreads quickly and invisibly and we are chasing it.
These are the basics. We know this stuff from March.
But we are getting tired. People have been stuck at home for a long time. We were stir crazy three weeks ago– this stage we are at now is a special type of extreme fatigue. We want out. It’s making us underestimate the risk, get excited about going to a restaurant or the hair salon, and we are disregarding the little voice inside that’s saying, “No, no, no.”
Many of you can take that risk, you believe, because you’re young, and fit, and there’s lower risk for you. You have the privilege of health. I have to tell you, it really pisses me off when you selfishly use your privilege that way. The more irresponsible people are, the longer I, and others like me, and all of your grandparents, are stuck in our self-isolation.
The last time I touched a human being was on the 11th of March, when I hugged my PhD supervisor. So I have a right to be a little pissy.
More importantly, our NHS facilities simply cannot handle opening the country too early, and face an onslaught of serious COVID-19 cases. I just watched the special of the BBC series Hospital, which you all should watch if possible. Called Hospital Special: Fighting COVID-19, it follows the first two weeks of lockdown inside the Royal Free Hospital, and associated Barnet Hospital, in north London. I’m planning on writing another post about it, because it’s a phenomenal exploration of the human spirit, but here is what you need to see to understand why opening is bad:
- Within two weeks of lockdown, every floor of the Royal Free was converted into COVID-19 care, save one. There are 12 floors of the Royal Free.
- Within three weeks, the hospital was experiencing pressure drops in the oxygen systems that feeds the patient ventilators. They had to have emergency oxygen deliveries from tankers, and by the fourth week were building supplementary storage systems. But the pipes were still having problems with the increased use of the system. The only way to fix the pipe issue involves shutting down the oxygen system for the whole hospital for 4-6 weeks. That’s not possible.
- The medical staff are already spread too thin. ITU nurses are usually assigned one patient per nurse. They are currently maintaining three patients per nurse. These workers are doing an incredible job, but that means each patient is getting one third of the normal level of attention.
- Healthy people were in the ITU. Young people were in the ITU. Someone who had run a 10K race ten days earlier was in the ITU.
- People died, and they died alone.
The problem is the government doesn’t prioritise human life over the economy, the ability of the NHS to cope over the need to make money. Furlough was extended, but for how long? When the message is to reopen, how do workers stay safe at home?
Use whatever power and privilege you have to protect others. Stay home. Let your employees stay home. Let your students stay home. Stay safe. Save lives.
This Isolation Life 